Revolutions have been spreading throughout the post Soviet territories, like a plague (if looked at from the Kremlin’s windows) or like spring (if looked at from the windows of Matrosskaya Tishina prison windows) – neither can be stopped.
In such cases historians say that while in the middle of events it is hard to determine their causes, because the historical perspective cannot yet be seen. And after time passes, historians say that the reason of the events long gone by cannot be defined, because they had taken place long time ago. However, these series of revolutions around Russia do have their reasons and patterns. And even though they cannot be determined each time, one still contemplates on what they may be.

The media is full of different suggestions of reasons for revolutions. Sometimes they are quite funny, like attempts to guess what is to become the symbol of the next revolution. In Georgia they used roses, in Ukraine – oranges, in Moldova – hand-made red and white merzishor, nobody would have guessed that in Kyrgyzstan it would be the almond blossom, luckily it bloomed on time. What will be next?

Sometimes there are serious and quite undiplomatic thoughts about intervention of the U.S. ambassador or OSCE observers. The Russian TV likes the idea of a plot against Russia, a diplomatic attack on Russia, however Belarus has been also visited by the U.S. ambassador and OSCE observers, but it did not result in a revolution for some mysterious reason.

It is pleasant to think that a revolution is successful when it is led by some charismatic woman. It is even more pleasant to think it turns out when it is opposed by the Fund of Effective Politics of Gleb Pavlovsky, implying the effectiveness of such opposition. It is amusing to notice that each time some country on the post Soviet territory is undergoing a revolution, the Russian TV channels divide the country into some two parts and try to produce their opposition, which often ends in peacemaking like in the case with Kiev. It is also amusing that each time the Russian TV names the opposing party bandits and criminals, but then when the revolution has been successful it interviews them as prime ministers, presidents, and shows reports of our president paying official visits to people, who were considered criminals only days before.

It is a pleasant thing to show-off one’s intelligence while discussing the causes and mechanisms of revolutions, but it is to be admitted that they are unclear and it is hard to intervene in them effectively, at least from the direction of Russia. One thing is clear though – if revolutions are anything like a plague, there is a way to stop an epidemic. But if they are anything like spring, they may not be stopped. Whether they are a plague or spring is the matter of faith. Or of time.